6 minutes

Dennis Katsnelson

Despite two debates without the former president, several legal issues, and criminal indictments, a field of contenders attempting to cut into former President Donald Trump's huge lead in the Republican presidential race are only having modest success. According to our website, Trump has maintained a 40- to 50-point lead in most national surveys, and he also holds sizable leads in polls in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire despite fluctuations within the field.

We took this video from Democracy Now! YouTube Channel.

As contenders attempted to tread a narrow line in persuading voters that even though they backed the majority or all of his policy decisions, he should not be the candidate at the head of the ticket, the field had also been reluctant to criticize him for months of the primary campaign season. He skipped the first two Republican debates due to a sizable advantage and a packed stage.

"Even though he's not the incumbent, he kind of has all the advantages of incumbency given that he's a former president and still has very high popularity and notoriety from the party, but it also his connections to several other people make it difficult for them to kind of fully attack him by endorsing stances in the Republican primary," said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan.

Following the second primary debate last week, a Messenger/Harris poll shows Trump's support to be well ahead of the competition at 56%, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis being the only other contender to break the double-digit mark at 11%. The results are consistent with the majority of other public opinion polls conducted up to this stage in the election, with Trump scoring near or above 50% and the majority of other candidates failing to crack the single digits. Debates have typically helped campaigns gain traction or offered opportunities for candidates to falter.

Some of the contenders, such as entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, saw an uptick in the polls following impressive showings, but most of the changes in the field have come from everyone else rather than luring people away from Trump's side.

Trump has skipped both debates up to this time and is unlikely to attend the third debate, which will take place in Miami next month. This topic came up frequently during the Simi Valley discussion.

"Donald, I'm aware you're looking,” Chris Christie, a former governor of New Jersey, said: "You can't help yourself. "You're avoiding these situations. And now I'll tell you what will happen. If you continue acting that way, you won't be referred to as Donald Trump any longer. You will be referred to as Donald Duck.”

By drawing attention to his absence, condemning some of Trump's remarks regarding abortion, and declining to commit to signing a nationwide ban, DeSantis attempted to score two victories. "The previous president is nowhere to be found this evening. He's spoken extensively about it. He ought to be here defending his remarks, in which he attempted to imply that pro-life protections are in some way deplorable.”

In the first debate, where he was rarely addressed until a moderator asked candidates about his legal difficulties, the contenders' readiness to directly aim at Trump was a stark difference.

They "definitely realized that they needed to do that because they needed to bring him down and kind of try to narrow that gap, and they also needed to get him back on the debate stage, even if it wasn't directly going to help themselves in the polls," Kall said. "I don't think any of them can catch up, given Trump's lead is so formidable," said the analyst. "Unless he agrees to debate, they won't have the chance in person to try to get some attacks against him and bring him down, or maybe he'll make a big mistake or show signs of age like Biden has."

However, those strategies have yet to produce any fruit. 43% of participants in the poll said they were more likely to support the former president following Wednesday night when they were given no other options. There was an almost even split on whether he should have attended the debate, with 49% stating they agreed with his decision and 51% disagreeing.

Although Miami, which is only about 70 miles from his Mar-a-Lago resort, will host the next debate on November 8, there currently needs to be signs that he will attend. During his event with autoworkers during the debate, Trump made fun of the whole field of contenders and showed little concern that his absence from the debates may affect his chances of securing the party's nomination.

At the occasion, he declared, "They're all job candidates. They'll take up any responsibility, including those of the secretary or vice president. Does anybody spot the group's vice president? I don't believe so.” The incident demonstrated how Trump's enormous lead and lack of discernible movement have allowed him to campaign for the general election throughout the primary.

With a little more than two months until the start of the Iowa caucuses, the field is also still very crowded. Eight candidates, including Trump, have already qualified for the second debate, though some may withdraw before Miami or fail to meet the higher standards.

Political experts and party leaders have known for months that the party's best chance of fielding a different presidential candidate in 2024 is through support consolidation, but that hasn't stopped a wide range of candidates from entering and remaining in the race. But it's uncertain if it would be sufficient to defeat Trump given his 50-point lead in some surveys and the dwindling amount of time left to gather more support.