In recent years, China has held the position of Germany's primary trading partner, but a shift in this trend is expected this year as the United States takes the lead. From January to March, the import and export turnover between the US and Germany totaled 63 billion euros, surpassing the 60 billion euro turnover between China and Germany.
According to Carsten Brzeski, head of ING Research, such changes could be influenced by several criteria.Recently, there has been a strong demand in the US for German goods and it can also be noted that previously imported goods from Germany to China, China now produces independently, this mainly concerns the automotive sector.
This has led to heightened competition for German companies, as Chinese firms benefit from government subsidies. The tense relationship between the European Union and China over the investigation of trade practices has had a significant impact. Data from a German research institute showed that the number of German companies heavily dependent on China fell by 9%.
China has long been a reliable trading partner for Germany, but America's rise to prominence is demonstrating a significant change in trade and a gradual separation from Chinese dependence.
The United States has seen a notable increase in imports from China in recent months, particularly following the reopening of manufacturing plants after the Lunar New Year holiday. Despite challenges in the supply chain, the nation's largest container ports are expected to handle over two million units of inbound cargo by May.
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In the first half of 2024, shipments are projected to reach 11.7 TEU, representing an 11 percent increase from the previous year. Retailers are facing the need to adapt to various factors impacting the supply chain, such as the Red Sea attacks, port closures in Baltimore, and temporary restrictions in the Gulf of Panama.
The closure of the port in Baltimore has led to the diversion of shipments to alternate locations like the Port of New York and New Jersey or Savannah, Georgia. With the Port of New York being the largest at approximately 7.81 million TEU and the Port of Georgia at 5.4 million TEU, both ports are experiencing congestion due to high demand, impacting overall efficiency.
Now the labor market in America is actively strengthening, especially due to the use of migrant labor. Low birth rates and lack of labor force among Americans had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. Recent statistics indicate that migrant workers made up 18% of the labor force last year, a record high, with a major focus on the agriculture sector that has long struggled with labor shortages.
Jennie Murray, CEO of the Immigration Forum, emphasizes the significant role migrant labor plays in rebuilding and supporting the U.S. economy, particularly in the aftermath of the pandemic. It is expected that the migrant labor force will help to stimulate the growth of production in the U.S., and subsequently lead to an increase in gross domestic product over the next decade by 7 trillion dollars.
As the American population continues to age, the demand for workers in sectors like nursing homes is growing rapidly. More than 40% of nursing home employees currently migrants from 65 different countries, highlighting the pivotal role migrant workers play in addressing critical job shortages.
Programs such as the "Goodwin Living Foundation" are instrumental in providing education and financial assistance to individuals seeking employment in the U.S. with the goal of obtaining citizenship. The program has successfully enabled many participants to secure jobs in various fields, including housekeeping, environmental services, and nursing homes. In just a couple of months there will be elections in the United States, and immigration issues will be a key topic of the election campaigns.
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